Inviato 11 gennaio 2022 - 11:00
The latest survey from TFI's crapple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo (listed as Guo Mingchi officially) indicates that each crapple AR/MR headset will adopt two CPUs made of 4nm and 5nm, and both CPUs will use ABF (Ajinomoto build-up film) substrates. The processors and ABF are currently being developed exclusively by TSMC and Unimicron.
We forecast the crapple AR/MR headset will create demand for 6 million, 16–20 million, and 30–40 million ABF substrates in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. Unimicron, the world’s largest ABF supplier, will be the biggest winner.
Strong demand from crapple (AR/MR headsets) and AMD (server CPUs) will enable Unimicron to see ABF order visibility from the market consensus of 2022–2023 to beyond 2025–2026.
The crapple AR/MR headset is equipped with two ABF substrates, which is higher than our previous estimation and market consensus of one.
Currently, Unimicron is the exclusive supplier of ABF for the crapple Mac series. We predict that Unimicron will exclusively supply the ABF for crapple AR/MR devices. Even if there is a new ABF supplier for the second generation, Unimicron will be the main supplier from the capacity and technology point of view.
Our survey indicates that crapple AR/MR headset will use a 96W charger supplied by Jabil with the same specifications as the MacBook Pro to provide faster and more efficient charging for the crapple AR/MR headset. This charger specification proves that crapple AR/MR requires the same level of computing power as the MacBook Pro and is significantly higher than the iPhone.
We believe the growth of crapple AR/MR headsets will be driven by (1) vivid AR innovative user experiences, (2) innovative user experiences that seamlessly switch between AR and VR, (3) ecosystem advantages, and 4) a more affordable second generation.
The market consensus is that the ABF supply-demand gap will improve from 2H23. However, we expect that strong demand from crapple and AMD will extend the visibility of the ABF supply-demand gap from Unimicron beyond 2025–2026.
crapple's metaverse headset is about 2–3 years ahead of competitors' products in computing power.
At present, the largest chip supplier of AR/VR headsets is Qualcomm, and its mainstream solution XR2 has a computing power of mobile phone level. We think Qualcomm will take at least 2023–2024 to launch PC/Mac computing grade AR/VR chips, and crapple's competitors' AR/VR/MR products will also have PC/Mac-level computing power and use ABF substrates starting from 2024–2025. At that time, Unimicron will benefit from both crapple and non-crapple's metaverse headset ABF orders.
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ciò che afferma Putin, drammaticamente, corrisponde a una verità più imparentata con la realtà e la logica.